Commodity Prices and DevelopmentRoman Grynberg, Samantha Newton More than 50 developing countries depend on three or fewer commodities for more than half of their exports and, in fact, many rely on a single commodity for a large share of export earnings. This reliance inevitability exposes countries to the risk of export earnings instability as a result of price shocks and, perhaps even more significantly, the falling purchasing power of exports over the long run due to declining real prices. Presenting for the first time a complete analysis ofthe issues surrounding commodity prices and development, this book is the culmination of three years of research commissioned by the Commonwealth Secretariat to look at various aspects of commodity prices.The problems faced by commodity dependent developing countries are formidable. Although diversification is the most appropriate response to the problem of the secular decline in commodity prices, long-term transformation in the economy can be a slow process and its success will depend on a host of factors such as the development of human resources, institutional capacity building, poverty alleviation, and appropriate domestic policy and environment. By granting increased aid flows and debtrelief, and providing assistance to encourage production of non-traditional export items, the international community can play a proactive role in the development of the commodity dependent poor countries. Only concerted efforts both at the domestic fronts of these countries and via co-operationextended by the international community can help mitigate the problems of the world's most vulnerable economies. |
Contents
Marginalization of LDCs and Small Vulnerable | 7 |
Empirical | 35 |
with UNCTAD Data | 49 |
Copyright | |
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agricultural aid flows Appendix average Bangladesh Benin billion Burkina Faso Burundi cent per annum cocoa coefficient coffee commodity exports commodity price index Commonwealth countries Congo Côte d'Ivoire cotton debt relief developing countries Economic Equatorial Guinea estimated export earnings export fob price export growth export prices export unit values farm gate price farm gate-to-retail price field crops Figure Fiji Foreign Exchange Loss Gabon gate-to-retail price spread Ghana HIPCs increase labour productivity LDCs and small Linear log retail Malawi Mauritius merchandise exports Mozambique Myanmar palm oil Papua New Guinea primary commodities relative commodity price relative price retail price Rwanda sample secular decline selected commodities selected tropical commodities share Sierra Leone significant single factoral terms Solomon Islands statistically study period sugar Tanzania terms of trade Togo tree crops trend growth rate Trinidad and Tobago Uganda UNCTAD unit root value chain Vanuatu variables World Bank Yes Yes Zambia