India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal
On May 11, 1998, after a hiatus of more than two decades, India conducted a series of nuclear tests that signaled a critical shift in its strategic thinking. Once content to embrace a nuclear posture consisting largely of "maintaining the option"--I.e., neither creating a nuclear arsenal nor renouncing its right to do so--India is now on the threshold of adopting a posture that, while stopping short of creating a ready arsenal, will take as its goal the establishment of a "minimum but credible deterrent," known as a "force-in-being." This book examines the forces--political, strategic, technological, and ideational--that led to this dramatic policy shift and describes how New Delhi's force-in-being will be fashioned, particularly in light of the threat India faces from its two most salient adversaries, China and Pakistan. The book evaluates in detail the material, infrastructural, and procedural capabilities India currently possesses as well as those it is likely to acquire in its efforts to meet the needs of its evolving force-in-being. Finally, the volume concludes by assessing the strategic implications of India's posture both on the South Asian region in particular and on the global nonproliferation regime in general.
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Relations with Key Countries
Domestic Politics and National Economic Performance
CONCERNS CONTEXTS AND CONSTRAINTS
The Declaratory Level of Policy
The Operational Level of Policy
THE LOGIC AND STRUCTURE OF THE EVOLVING FORCEINBEING
Limited in Size
Separated in Disposition
Centralized in Control
ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE INDIAN NUCLEAR POSTURES
ALTERNATIVES INVOLVING DENUCLEARIZATION
Renounce the Nuclear Option
A Regional NuclearFree Zone
ALTERNATIVES INVOLVING NUCLEARIZATION
Maintaining the Nuclear Option
A Recessed Deterrent
Developing a Ready Nuclear Arsenal
WHAT WILL INDIA CHOOSE?
TOWARD A FORCEINBEING I UNDERSTANDING INDIAS NUCLEAR DOCTRINE AND FUTURE FORCE POSTURE
TOWARD A FORCEINBEING II ASSESSING THE REQUIREMENTS AND ADEQUACY OF THE EVOLVING DETERRENT
WHAT INDIA HAS WHAT INDIA HASNT
MEETING THE DEMANDS OF SUCCESSFUL DETERRENCE
THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF INDIAS NUCLEAR POSTURE
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Page 16 - For the purposes of this Treaty, a nuclear-weapon State is one which has manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device prior to January 1, 1967.