India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal

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Rand Corporation, Jan 1, 2001 - Political Science - 885 pages
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On May 11, 1998, after a hiatus of more than two decades, India conducted a series of nuclear tests that signaled a critical shift in its strategic thinking. Once content to embrace a nuclear posture consisting largely of "maintaining the option"--I.e., neither creating a nuclear arsenal nor renouncing its right to do so--India is now on the threshold of adopting a posture that, while stopping short of creating a ready arsenal, will take as its goal the establishment of a "minimum but credible deterrent," known as a "force-in-being." This book examines the forces--political, strategic, technological, and ideational--that led to this dramatic policy shift and describes how New Delhi's force-in-being will be fashioned, particularly in light of the threat India faces from its two most salient adversaries, China and Pakistan. The book evaluates in detail the material, infrastructural, and procedural capabilities India currently possesses as well as those it is likely to acquire in its efforts to meet the needs of its evolving force-in-being. Finally, the volume concludes by assessing the strategic implications of India's posture both on the South Asian region in particular and on the global nonproliferation regime in general.
 

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Contents

CONCERNS CONTEXTS AND CONSTRAINTS
255
The Declaratory Level of Policy
257
The Operational Level of Policy
292
THE LOGIC AND STRUCTURE OF THE EVOLVING FORCEINBEING
362
Limited in Size
370
Separated in Disposition
397
Centralized in Control
424
TAKING STOCK
463

ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE INDIAN NUCLEAR POSTURES
113
ALTERNATIVES INVOLVING DENUCLEARIZATION
121
Renounce the Nuclear Option
122
A Regional NuclearFree Zone
151
Evaluating Denuclearization
164
ALTERNATIVES INVOLVING NUCLEARIZATION
168
Maintaining the Nuclear Option
169
A Recessed Deterrent
207
Developing a Ready Nuclear Arsenal
221
WHAT WILL INDIA CHOOSE?
239
TOWARD A FORCEINBEING I UNDERSTANDING INDIAS NUCLEAR DOCTRINE AND FUTURE FORCE POSTURE
247
TOWARD A FORCEINBEING II ASSESSING THE REQUIREMENTS AND ADEQUACY OF THE EVOLVING DETERRENT
473
WHAT INDIA HAS WHAT INDIA HASNT
474
Nuclear Weapons
494
Delivery Systems
523
Supporting Infrastructure
578
Procedural Systems
631
MEETING THE DEMANDS OF SUCCESSFUL DETERRENCE
667
THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF INDIAS NUCLEAR POSTURE
721
BIBLIOGRAPHY
763
INDEX
859
Copyright

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Page 16 - For the purposes of this Treaty, a nuclear-weapon State is one which has manufactured and exploded a nuclear weapon or other nuclear explosive device prior to January 1, 1967.
Page 18 - India and Pakistan, and all other States that have not yet done so, to become Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty without delay and without conditions...
Page 32 - Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1989), p. 26, n. 73. 34. Dunn, "Containing Nuclear Proliferation,

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About the author (2001)

Ashley J. Tellis is a senior policy analyst at RAND.

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