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23 July 23 March 749 observations band bilateral rate Bundesbank capital controls central bank conditional distribution conditional mean conditional on available conditional variance conditional volatility consists of weekly credible target zone cumulative inflation differential currency crises data set consists devaluation distribution of exchange econometric estimates European Monetary System exchange rate changes exchange rate movements exchange rate target FF/DM rate FF/DM target zone floating currencies floating exchange rates foreign exchange risk French Franc French Franc/Deutschemark FF/DM interest differential interest rate differential Interest Rate Parity Jorion Journal of International jump probability jump risk Krugman model level of reserves likelihood function lines indicate realignments Maastricht Treaty mean reversion model of exchange NBER Working Papers non-linear normal distribution observations from 23 parameters position predict premia realignment jumps realignment probabilities risk premium Rose and Svensson slope speculative attacks target zone models total of 749 truncated normal UIRP weekly observations within-the-band jumps yield curve zone band