The Black Swan

Front Cover
Random House, Oct 13, 2009 - 366 pages
72 Reviews
In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'.

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LibraryThing Review

User Review  - danoomistmatiste - LibraryThing

A very interesting book. Don't quite know how to review it as I am still digesting it's import. The author seems to have committed to words spasms and bouts of flashbacks gleaned from general ... Read full review

LibraryThing Review

User Review  - themulhern - LibraryThing

The author wants us to know that he is well-connected, went to some very fancy schools, and, at least at one point, was making a whole lot of money. He also has a point, but is a little too convinced ... Read full review

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