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1og Q Arithmetic Mean arithmetic measure based arithmetic prediction operator based on squared components composite variables correlation coefficient country's effective exchange covariance and correlation currency decomposed decomposition property given decomposition provided deﬁned with respect deﬁnition effective exchange rate equation 15 example exchange rate instability export earnings export instability ﬁrst ﬁrst-order deviations ﬂuctuations geometric decomposition property geometric measure geometric prediction operators given by equation growth rate indices instability based instability index instability satisfying Journal of World least-squares exponential trend Massell I964 mathematical formulation measure of instability measure satisfying moving averages multiplicative composite normalized measure number of researchers predicted time series predicted value price and quantity quantitative decomposition quantitative relationship satisfying the geometric scaling factor series pY squared deviations Standard error trading partners trend-adjusted values trend-corrected correlation trend-corrected covariance Tuong and Alexander UNCTAD unit value United Nations value and volume value of exports variance World Trade Law