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accuracy accurate actions taken advance warning Agnes alerted Appendix automatic devices bottom row calculations Civil Defense Office closed cost-benefit analysis disaster Dollar value effectiveness Ellicott City Business estimate evacuation evaluating explain the ratio factors Flash Flood Alarm Flood Alarm System flood insurance Flood Warning flooding occurs height prediction higher shelves Howard County individuals interviewed inventory saved issued by Civil items on higher Main Main Main Main Street Marriottsville merchants moved inventory National Weather Service Northwestern University notified Patapsco River Patuxent River Patuxent Watershed Area pieces of information PLAINFIELD possible flood predicted height premises property damage property saved questionaire regression analysis residents response save personal property save property sensor shopkeepers Significance R Square Simple R 904 special task report Square X2 Staff gauges Street Street Street taken to save Tropical Storm Agnes valuable items value of property variable warning device warning system water level