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2.5 percent adjust the interest adjusting interest rate Bertola and Svensson central parity CEPR Discussion Papers Danish krone depreciation within band Deutsche mark devaluation expectations Devaluation Risk Dickey-Fuller test ERM bands estimate the expected estimated expected rates estimates of devaluation estimates of expected European Monetary System exchange rate band exchange rate movements exchange risk premium expected conditional devaluation expected conditional realignment expected future exchange FF/DM expected rate FF/DM log foreign exchange risk frequency of realignment future exchange rate IL/DM exchange rate IL/DM expected IL/DM log exchange intercept interest rate differential LEO Svensson Lindberg log exchange rate model of expected participating currency precise estimation random walk rate of depreciation rate of devaluation rate of realignment rate within band Rose and Svensson Sdderlind 1991 short regimes slopes small-sample problem standard errors sufficiently long maturities Svensson and Sdderlind Swedish krona Table Target Zone Credibility uncovered interest parity unit root