Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Front Cover
Crown, Sep 29, 2015 - Business & Economics - 352 pages
23 Reviews
Reviews aren't verified, but Google checks for and removes fake content when it's identified
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST 

The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
 
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
 
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
 
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
 

What people are saying - Write a review

User ratings

5 stars
8
4 stars
11
3 stars
4
2 stars
0
1 star
0

Reviews aren't verified, but Google checks for and removes fake content when it's identified

LibraryThing Review

User Review  - Paul_S - LibraryThing

In the end hits turned out to be advertising for the business the authors created. I notice that their website does not abide by their ethidcs espoused in this book about showing the record of past ... Read full review

LibraryThing Review

User Review  - LynnB - LibraryThing

An informative look at the art of predicting the future, Superforecasting talks about inherent biases and how we can mitigate them to become better at forecasting future events. This book draws on the work behind "Thinking Fast and Slow", which would make a great companion read. Read full review

Selected pages

Contents

An Optimistic Skeptic
Illusions of Knowledge
Keeping Score
Superforecasters
Supersmart?
Superquants?
Supernewsjunkies?
Perpetual Beta
Superteams
The Leaders Dilemma
Are They Really So Super?
Whats Next?
Epilogue
Acknowledgments
About the Authors
Copyright

Other editions - View all

Common terms and phrases

About the author (2015)

Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.
 
Dan Gardner is a New York Times bestselling author, speaker, and consultant. His three books on psychology and decision-making—published in 25 countries and 19 languages—have been praised by everyone from The Economist to Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman. Prior to becoming an author, Gardner was a newspaper columnist, talking head, and investigative journalist who won or was nominated for every major award in Canadian newspaper journalism. He is an honorary senior fellow at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public Policy and International Affairs and lives in Ottawa, Canada.

Bibliographic information