Preventing Deflation: Lessons from Japan's Experiences in the 1990s |
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actual forecasted one-year actual interest rate asset price bubble Bank of Japan baseline basis points Bayoumi Bernanke bubble economy call-money rate Clarida collapse consumption tax increase CPI inflation debt declined deflationary slump downturn early easing economic activity effects estimated Taylor rule Exhibit IV.1 federal funds rate Federal Reserve System fiscal stimulus forecasted one-year previously FRB/Global model GDP growth Gertler growth rates inflation rates Institute for International International Monetary Fund Japan's experience Japanese economy Japanese fiscal policy Japanese monetary policy Kamin land prices liquidity trap long-term interest rates lower macroeconomic Mikitani monetary and fiscal monetary base Nishiyama 2001 nominal interest rates OECD output gap panel of Exhibit Parallels to U.S. percent of GDP period policy rule policymakers Posen real GDP real interest rates Reuters News Service revised data sector short-term interest rates simulations slowdown spending staff forecasts structural deficit substantial sustained tax cuts temporary transmission mechanism zero bound