Politics, Paradigms, and Intelligence Failures: Why So Few Predicted the Collapse of the Soviet Union

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M.E. Sharpe, Jan 1, 2004 - Philosophy - 281 pages
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Washington's failure to foresee the collapse of its superpower rival ranks high in the pantheon of predictive failures. The question of who got what right or wrong has been intertwined with the deeper issue of "who won" the Cold War. Like the disputes over "who lost" China and Iran, this debate has been fought out along ideological and partisan lines, with conservatives claiming credit for the Evil Empire's demise and liberals arguing that the causes were internal to the Soviet Union. The intelligence community has come in for harsh criticism for overestimating Soviet strength and overlooking the symptoms of crisis; the discipline of "Sovietology" has dissolved into acrimonious irrelevance. Drawing on declassified documents, interviews, and careful analysis of contemporaneous literature, this book offers the first systematic analysis of this predictive failure at the paradigmatic, foreign policy, and intelligence levels. Although it is focused on the Soviet case, it offers lessons that are both timely and necessary.
 

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Contents

The Theory and Practice of Predicting Political Change
3
Tinkering Around the Edges 19851986
120
Systemic Change 19871989
146
Reflections on Predictive Failures
203
References
226
Index
263
About the Author
282
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About the author (2004)

OFIRA SELIKTAR is Professor of Political Science at Gratz College, and the author of Failing the Crystal Ball Test.

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