Preventive Measures: Building Risk Assessment and Crisis Early Warning SystemsJohn L. Davies, Ted Robert Gurr State failure, ethnopolitical war, genocide, famine, and refugee flows are variants of a type of complex political and humanitarian crisis, exemplified during the 1990s in places like Somalia, Bosnia, Liberia, and Afghanistan. The international consequences of such crises are profound, often threatening regional security and requiring major inputs of humanitarian assistance. They also may pose long-term and costly challenges of rebuilding shattered governments and societies. A vital policy question is whether failures can be diagnosed far enough in advance to facilitate effective international efforts at prevention or peaceful transformation. This volume of original essays examines crisis early warning factors at different levels, in different settings, and judges their effectiveness according to various models. Top contributors offer answers along with analyses as they move from early warning to early response in their policy recommendations. |
Contents
A Risk Assessment Model of Ethnopolitical Rebellion | 15 |
The State Failure Project Early Warning Research for US Foreign Policy Planning | 27 |
Indicator Development Issues in Forecasting Conflict Escalation | 39 |
Early Warning Indicators of Forced Migration | 56 |
Early Warning of Humanitarian Crises Sequential Models and the Role of Accelerators | 70 |
Dynamic Data for Conflict Early Warning | 77 |
Cluster Analysis as an Early Warning Technique for the Middle East | 93 |
Timely Conflict Risk Assessments and the PANDA Project | 106 |
The Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture | 183 |
The US Agency for International Developments Famine Early Warning System | 192 |
The Humanitarian Early Warning System From Concept to Practice | 201 |
ReliefWeb An International Information Management Tool | 210 |
The Role of Early Warning in the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees | 217 |
Toward ResponseOriented Early WarningAnalysis | 228 |
Information Sharing and Early Warning | 239 |
Early Warning An Action Agenda | 246 |
A Pattern Recognition Approach to Conflict Early Warning | 119 |
Early Warning of Environmentally Caused Conflicts | 129 |
An Expert System for Assessing Vulnerability to Instability | 140 |
The FUGI Model as a Global Early Warning System for Refugees | 157 |
Human Rights Abuses and Arms Trafficking in Central Africa | 172 |
FAST A Pilot Study for an Early Warning System for the Swiss Foreign Ministry | 179 |
References | 253 |
List of Open Access Early Warning Projects | 265 |
Index | 279 |
| 285 | |
Other editions - View all
Preventive Measures: Building Risk Assessment and Crisis Early Warning Systems John L. Davies,Ted Robert Gurr No preview available - 1998 |
Common terms and phrases
Abkhazia Accel accelerators Africa analysis analytical approach Bosnia Burundi capacity chapter civil Clout cluster coding coercive conflict early warning Congo/Zaire countries crisis Croatia database dataset decision makers displaced persons dynamic early warning model Early Warning System economic emergency environmental ethnic ethnic war event data example factors failure famine food security forecast foreign GEDS genocide Gerner GIEWS global Group's Favor Gurr Harff human rights violations Human Rights Watch identify increase indicators instability interaction internal displacement intervention issues KEDS migration Minorities at Risk monitoring natural capital NGOs NNLI Organizational Cohesion organizations PANDA pattern Peace Perceives Peter Brecke phase PIOOM political politicides population potential problem Project rebellion refugee regime regional ReliefWeb reports response risk assessments Rwanda Schrodt sector situation Slovenia sources specific structural tion trigger Tutsi types UNHCR United Nations UNOCHA variables violence wars World