Decision analysis: introductory lectures on choices under uncertainty
You basic problem; Analysis of your basic problem; Uncertain payoffs and biased measurements; Utility theory or what to do about non-EMV'ers; Use of judgmental probability; The normal form of analysis; More on the economics of sampling; Risk sharing and group decision; The art of implementation and general critique; Further perspective and a guide to the literature.
26 pages matching conditional probability in this book
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Your Basic Problem
Analysis of Your Basic Problem
Summary and generalization
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7T-indifference acceptance set analyze assume basic problem Bayesian behavior branch chance forks chapter choice choose cme's coin conditional probability consider cost decision analysis decision maker decision problem decision-flow diagram depend discuss draw EMv'er example expected utility expected value experimentation and action exponential utility Figure form of analysis gamble give given indifference curves individuals interval joint conditional evaluation joint utility evaluation judgmental probability L. J. Savage labeled lectures likelihood function Likelihood Principle mathematical maximize monetary non-EMv'er obtain optimal strategy option outcome pair Pareto-optimal partition path probabilities payoffs perfect information possible posterior posterior probability prefer prob probability assessments probability assignments probability distribution procedure red ball risk sharing sample shown in Fig situation statistical strategy for experimentation Suppose Table theory tion toss tree true proportion uncertain quantities uncertainty utility curve utility function utility value zero