Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal SustainabilityJuha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, Jukka Lassila There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes. |
Other editions - View all
Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability Juha M. Alho,Svend E. Hougaard Jensen,Jukka Lassila No preview available - 2008 |
Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability Juha M. Alho,Svend E. Hougaard Jensen,Jukka Lassila No preview available - 2012 |
Common terms and phrases
actuarially age-profile age-specific aggregate mortality risk Alho and Spencer analysis annuity rate assumed assumptions baseline scenario behaviour Belgium capital cent prediction interval changes cohorts consumption consumption tax contribution rates Cruijsen demographic uncertainty dependency ratio economic EEA+ countries endogenous equivalent variation estimates Europe Eurostat exogenous expected welfare factor fertility rate Figure finances Finland Finnish forecast errors Germany health expenditure higher households intergenerational intertemporal Keilman labour income labour supply long-term longevity adjustment macro-economic median migration mortality rates Netherlands old-age dependency ratio parameter pension expenditure Pension Reform pension system percentage points period point forecast population ageing population paths precautionary savings prediction interval predictive distribution rational expectations regions replacement rates retired persons retirement age risk aversion risk-sharing saving simulations Spain specific standard deviation Statistics stochastic stochastic forecasts Table tax rate tax-smoothing tion United Kingdom utility values variables wage welfare cost world interest rate
Popular passages
Page 12 - Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.