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A Model With a Nonlinear Relationship Between Demand and Inflation
1.3 percent absence of shocks actual inflation aggregate demand annual rate average level bottom panel capacity output coefficients convexity CPI Inflation BAR estimation results excess supply expected future inflation expected inflation Federal funds rate Federal Reserve forward-looking policy reaction gappos gapt Hodrick-Prescot Filter increases in inflation Inflation Deviation inflation equation inflation expectations inflation pressures inflation process inflation rate inflationary Laxton level of output linear Lucas critique macroeconomic measure of inflation middle panel monetary authorities monetary policy reaction monetary policy response moving average MPS model myopic policy rule nominal interest rate output and inflation output gap parameters periods of excess policy reaction function policy response function policymaker potential output rate of inflation real GDP real interest rate rising inflation shock minus control short-run capacity constraints short-term interest rate shown stochastic simulations Table transmission mechanism trend U.S. inflation U.S. output-inflation process UC model variance of output Wald Test YR/YR