Judgment in Managerial Decision Making
Can You Really Improve Your Judgment and Decision-Making Ability? Situations requiring careful judgment are continually facing you throughout your daily lives and are a major component of managerial work at all levels of the corporate ladder. In any organization, this constitutes a critical human resource for the firm. While to some extent, judgment may be considered an innate ability, it is generally believed that training can offer significant improvement on the quality of managerial judgment. Judgment in Managerial Decision Making provides that training to students by creating an awareness of the decision-making process, by allowing students to change their decision-making processes, and by offering strategies for improving these processes so that they become part of the reader’s permanent behavior. Re-written as a result of feedback from both colleagues and students, the fourth edition of this classic book provides even more interesting and contemporary examples of real-world decisions. This edition includes a new chapter on motivational biases (chapter 6), which examines how our motivations affect the rationality of our thoughts, and examines managerial decision-making from both individual and multi-party perspectives. By making use of these chapters, the individual can make permanent improvements to future decisions.
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Introduction to Managerial Decision Making
Judgment under Uncertainty
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accept addition adjustment alternative anchor anchoring and adjustment argue assess availability heuristic bargaining zone Bazerman behavior bias biases bidders cards chapter choice coalition cognitive competitive competitors conjunction fallacy Consider the following context course of action create decision makers decision-making processes develop dollar auction effect El-Tek employee escalation estimate evaluate example expected value fairness firm Fischhoff framing identify important individuals initial interests intertemporal choices intuitive issues judgment Loewenstein loss managerial MD produces ment million months multiparty negotiation norm offer organization organizational outcomes overconfidence participants percent Player positive illusions potential predict preferences probability problem profit prospect theory pseudocertainty effect Raiffa rational reference point representativeness heuristic response result risk averse risk seeking risky risky shift scenario situations Slovic specific strategies suggests tend Thaler third party tion Tversky and Kahneman ultimatum game winner's curse