Federal Reserve Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts of Short-term Interest RatesDivisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, 2004 - Interest rates - 36 pages |
Common terms and phrases
1-quarter-ahead 1-year-ahead 2004 Solid lines 3-month-ahead 90-day eurodollar rate ability to forecast absolute value Athanasios Orphanides basis points Blue Chip Brian Sack central bank transparency component of FOMC cross-sectional dispersion December dispersion of private downward trend Economics Discussion Series estimated eurodollar futures contract eurodollar options ex ante February fed funds federal funds futures federal funds rate Federal Reserve Board Federal Reserve transparency financial market forecasts FOMC announcements FOMC meeting forecast dispersion forecasts of real forecasts of short-term funds futures contract funds futures forecast funds rate momentum funds rate target funds rate volatility GDP Deflator Inflation implied volatility improvement in financial increases in Federal inflation targeting interest rate forecast January June Kuttner lognormal distribution macroeconomic uncertainty market forecast errors measure Monetary Policy November open market operation private sector forecasts Rasche real GDP growth regressions reported in square short-term interest rates surprise component t-statistics reported TABLE TO FIGURE Treasury Bill Rate U.S. economy