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analyze ANOVA APEC Argentina Asian crisis Asian Financial Crisis Bank Contagion bank lending BANKCOMP Berg and Pattillo Capital Flows Chile Coef coefficients Colombia common lender contagion variables correlation country-specific currency crises degree of financial degree of real economies emerging markets empirical exchange market movements exchange market pressure exchange rate exogenous explaining financial crises financial interdependence foreign debt foreign exchange markets Frankel Fred Bergsten Full Model function of equation fundamental variable fundamentals and contagion Global herd behavior important Indonesia interest rates investors Korea Latin America Latin American crisis Lending Boom linear infection function Malaysia Marcus Noland Markov methodology MODEL MODEL model of equation non-linear Markov-switching model Pakistan panel data panel data analysis paper Philippines portfolio flows predictive power real and financial Real Integration Contagion real interdependence regime shifts regime-generating process regressions Sachs sector Sherman Robinson significant Source Southeast and East spread sunspots Table Thailand tranquil periods Venezuela