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allocation assets average Bank of Richmond bankruptcy behavior bond equation bond prices borrowing branching Buenos Aires capital income tax career concerns ceilings coins competition constraint consumer consumption cost countries credit card credit markets credit unions debt decline default premiums deposits distribution downgrade employee equilibrium estimated evidence exclusion expected inflation Federal Reserve Bank Federal Reserve System Figure Fisher equation FOMC FOMC meetings forward contracts full-commitment funds rate future households imply increase individual inflation expectations inflation risk premium interest rates Journal jumbo CD Kydland labor productivity Lagrange multiplier lenders lending loans long bond rate long-term inflation macroeconomic marginal utility measure monetary policy nominal number of banks optimal policy output per worker Pareto distribution percent policy rule policymaker problem relative productivity restrictions Richmond Economic Quarterly risk premiums sample period shocks short-term inflation uncertainty surveillance tax rates trend U.S. banks unsecured variables yield yield curve zero Zipf's Law