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accountability Achen adverse selection asymmetrical information business cycles campaign cause of termination Centro challenge Change Cheibub and Przeworski citizens coalition governments Comparative Perspective competence conspiracies country/year observations Craxi criteria of politicians democratic Democrazia Cristiana depends economic conditions economic voting effective number effort electoral defeat Estado Estudios Europe European Union exogenous conditions external conditions fellow politicians Ferejohn Fiorina future G.D.P. growth Gunther hazard function Helmut Schmidt ideological incentives incumbent politicians induce representation inflation influence Institutional Labour losing office losing power majoritarian Maravall median voter messages Montero moral hazard number of parties outcomes parliament parliamentary democracies Perez-Diaz Politica political scandals predictor variables prime ministers probability of winning PSOE rational expectations reaction of voters rent-seeking replaced responsibility retrospective assessments retrospective voting risk of losing Sanchez-Cuenca single member districts single party governments Social socialist Spain Spanish strategy strictly retrospective survive in office theory threshold for re-election Unemployment voting rule