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100 percent actual and expected aftermath annual rate anti-inﬂation program Argentina Austral plan autoregressive process Banco de México central bank chronic inﬂation collapse conﬁdence contractionary monetary policy demand for money domestic credit domestic inﬂation estimated Federal Reserve System Finance Discussion Papers ﬁnanced ﬁnd ﬁrst ﬁscal and monetary ﬁscal austerity ﬁscal deﬁcit ﬁscal policies ﬁscal shocks ﬁxed-exchange-rate regime followed by inﬂation foreign exchange reserves foreign inﬂation government budget deﬁcit government deﬁcit High real interest high-inﬂation regime hyperinﬂation index of severity interest rates reﬂect International Finance Discussion investors lack of credibility low inﬂation low-inﬂation regime monetary and ﬁscal monetary shocks money and ﬁscal money demand money growth money supply nominal interest rates percent of GDP percent per month post real interest probabilities of switching program is implemented rate of inﬂation real interest rates stabilization package stabilization plan stabilization program stochastic process followed switching regimes U.S. dollar world inﬂation rate