Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analyses of Forecasting Behavior and PerformanceFive essays deal with recorded expectational and forecasting data, which provide an opportunity for substantive and methodological inquiry into the basic questions on the formation and accuracy fo economic expectations. |
Contents
THE EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC | 3 |
Four Aggregative Variables 195363 | 12 |
XV | 15 |
Copyright | |
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Common terms and phrases
association with purchases autonomous component autoregressive B₁ business forecasts buying intentions surveys chases in cross cluding attitudes coefficients coefficients of determination column constant other relevant consumer durables correlation cross sections data errors desired stock difference dummy variable equation specification problem error-learning model fore forecast error forward rates future purchase rate geometrically declining weights holding constant hypothesis improved intentions variable improves the time-series includes a number independent variables infer intenders and nonintenders intentions and purchases INTENTIONS DATA intentions variables contribute interest rates mean square error multicollinearity past spot rates portion of intenders proportion of intenders purchases when attitudes rate of intenders rate of nonintenders regression related to purchases relationship to pur revisions are less root mean square sampling errors show a significant smoothed weights span of forecast standard errors Table test gives valid tests have asked time-series paradox referred time-series relation usual variable obtained variables including attitudes yield curve