Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance, Revised EditionA book on practical business forecasting belongs in the library of everyone interested in business. Forecasting is extremely important to finance and accounting executives, business economists and managers at all levels. Strategic Business Forecasting: The Complete Guide to Forecasting Real World Company Performance provides you with a working knowledge of the fundamentals of business forecasting that can be applied in the real world regardless of the size of the firm. The author explains the basic forecasting methodology and the practical applications. All aspects of business are discussed, making this a comprehensive and valuable reference. The author avoids theoretical and mathematical discussions to gets right into how, when , and why to use this book. Many practical examples, applications, illustrations, guidelines, measures, checklists, rules of thumb, tips, graphs, diagrams and tables aid your comprehension of the subject. The author displays and explains printouts obtained using many popular spreadsheet programs and software packages. The book goes far beyond just sales forecasting, encompassing a wide range of topics of major importance to practical business managers and finance professionals, including cash flow forecasting, cost prediction, earnings forecasts, bankruptcy prediction, foreign exchange forecasting, and interest rate forecasting. Written in an easy-to-read style, it is practical, current, and intriguing - a reference book to use throughout your business career. |
Contents
Forecasting Budgeting and Business Valuation | 15 |
Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods | 29 |
Regression Analysis | 45 |
Multiple Regression | 57 |
Time Series Analysis and Classical | 79 |
Forecasting with No Data | 95 |
The BoxJenkins Approach to Forecasting | 103 |
Models Based on Learned BehaviorMarkov Model | 121 |
Cash Flow Forecasting | 179 |
Cost Behavior and Cost Prediction | 189 |
Bankruptcy Prediction | 203 |
Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates | 229 |
Interest Rate Forecasting | 243 |
Technological Forecasting | 251 |
Forecasting in the 21st Century | 263 |
GLOSSARY | 267 |
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Common terms and phrases
accounts receivable accuracy Adjusted advertising ARIMA assets assumptions auto-correlation autoregressive b₁ Box-Jenkins calculated cash budget cash collections cash flow con't constant cycle degrees of freedom Delphi Delphi method dependent variable develop direct labor Durbin-Watson Durbin-Watson statistic earnings econometric economic estimate evaluate example expected explanatory variables exponential smoothing factors factory overhead Figure firm fore forecasting errors forecasting methods forecasting model forecasting techniques future growth income statement indicates industry input-output Input-Output Analysis INTEREST RATE FORECASTING Lambda index linear liquid Markov mean squared error Minitab moving average multiple regression Navistar Parameter percent percentage period planning prediction projected quarter R-squared ratio regression analysis regression coefficient regression equation REGRESSION OUTPUT relationship residuals sales forecast seasonal short-term simple regression spreadsheet standard deviation Standard error statistical Step t-statistic t-value Table technological forecasting tion Total trend analysis X₁ Y₁ Z-score
References to this book
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners J.S. Armstrong Limited preview - 2001 |