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1-Mt warhead adjusted VN Appendix assumed attack multiplier booster burst error burst uncertainty calculated Circular error probable cloud radius Confidence in missile crossrange error cumulative distribution function damage function damage sigma debris particles DIA's downrange error EFFECT OF RANDOM Effects of Nuclear equal equation error in height fireball formulation fratricide model fuzes given Ground Range groundburst height of burst high probability shelters ICBM impact bias impact distribution impact points K-factor kill probability kilotons lethal radius low probability shelters low probability subset missile location MPS system nominal normal distribution Nuclear Weapons number of missiles number of surviving optimal airburst parameters Rand random variations ratio reentry angle second warhead shown in Fig silo slope standard deviation Steinbruner and Garwin stem radius Student's t distribution survive fratricide surviving missiles systematic bias target hardness TNT equivalent traditional model variability vulnerability number system weapon radius