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actual forecasting actual value amount autoregressive model average error business cycle calculated casting chapter chartist coefficients collected components data series deviations discussed economic forecasting economic variables estimate examine example expected exponential smoothing fall federal funds rate fore forecast accuracy forecast error forecast of GNP forecasting firms forecasting method forecasting services fourth quarter future government expenditures graph important income increase index of leading inflation interest rates investment ISBN judgmental forecast labor leading indicators linear regression market participants mean square error money supply month movements occurred overall past forecasts past values percent percentage change period period's forecast predicted presented problem R3MO RAAA rainfall rate of change rate of growth real GNP recession relationship RMSE root mean square seasonal adjustment seasonal factors side variable statistics stock prices substantially survey techniques third quarter tion Treasury Treasury securities turning points Unem unemployment rate