The rise of the Chinese consumer: theory and evidence
In this book Jonathan Garner and his colleagues at Credit Suisse First Boston, argue that by 2014 the Chinese consumer will likely have displaced the US consumer as the engine of growth in the global economy. Government policy is rebalancing demand within the Chinese economy from investment spending to consumption spending. Strong trend economic growth over the cycle, a rise in the consumption to GDP ratio and steady exchange rate appreciation will likely generate an 18% compound annual growth rate in the US dollar value of Chinese consumption spending over the next ten years and lead to a quadrupling in China's share of global consumption spending.
In order to identify the companies and brands which are best placed to succeed in China's rapidly developing mass consumer market, Garner and his colleagues discuss the results of the first comprehensive survey of consumer attitudes and preferences to have been conducted in China, covering 2,700 persons in eight major Chinese cities. This survey provides valuable data for the business executive or academic seeking detailed local information on sectors including automobiles, beverages, electronic goods, financial services, food producers, food retail, food services, household & personal care, luxury goods, telecommunication equipment, tobacco, and transport and leisure travel.
"China is likely to be the single most important influence on the fortunes of investors and corporates alike over the next five years, and yet little is known of what motivates and drives the Chinese consumer. By canvassing the people that matter and reflect the changing face of this massive country, Jonathan Garner has provided investors with a unique insight."
Philip Ehrmann, Head of Pacific & Emerging Markets, Gartmore Investment Management Plc.
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TopDown Projections of Consumption Growth in China
Drivers of and Constraints to Chinas LongRun
NearTerm Risks to Consumption Arising from
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15 selected countries 20-29 age bracket answered this section Asian Demographics Ltd average Bank and CSFB Base=AII respondents Base=Respondents Beijing BJ SH GZ CAGR CD XA Unweighted Chinese brands Chinese consumers companies consumption spending CSFB estimates Figure CSFB research Figure debit card domestic economy exchange rate exports Express 555 foreign brands GDP growth GDP per capita global growth rate Guangzhou GZ SZ SY household consumption household income increase investment Japan Lenovo luxury major market share Motorola Nokia ownership percentages personal computers population PPP level private cars purchase Renminbi Reproduced by permission respondents who answered rise section Total sector SH GZ SZ Shanghai Shenzhen shown in Figure Source survey SY WH CD SZ SY WH Table Tier tobacco Total BJ SH Total Unweighted Base Transparency International versus Wahaha Weighted base('000 Weighted Base('OOO Western fast food WH CD XA World Bank XA Unweighted Base
Brand New China: Advertising, Media, and Commercial Culture
Limited preview - 2009