## Human judgments and optimality |

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### Contents

THE RELATION OF JUDGMENTS | 1 |

CONCLUDING STATEMENT | 26 |

LEARNING AND OPTIMAL JUDGMENTS | 27 |

Copyright | |

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action alternative analysis application assigned attributes Aumann Bayes's theorem Bayesian Bayesian statistics behavior chapter choice consider constraints corresponding decision maker decision problems decision process decision situation decision task decision theory defined discussion distribution Educational Testing Service environment errors estimates evaluation example expected utility expected utility theory experiment factors fallible Figure formal fugue given Gulliksen human judgments ill-defined problems indifference curves inputs intensional optimization judges language learning likelihood function likelihood principle linear programming logic Luce mathematical maximal maximal element mean measurement methods objective observations optimal decisions optimal strategy optimum outcomes outputs P's personal structure parameters particular payoff perception possible posterior probability preference ordering present prior probabilities problem solver programming problems Psychol psychological psychotherapy relation represented response selected sequence solution solving space specification statistical stimulus studies subjective subset techniques therapist tion transformation trial Univer utility function utility theory variable vector Wiley