## Bayesian Reasoning in High-Energy Physics: Principles and Applications, Issue 3Bayesian statistics is based on the intuitivetive idea that probability quantifies the degree of belief in the occurrence of an event. Many cases of evaluation of measurement uncertainty are considered in detail in this report. |

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### Contents

Introduction | 1 |

A probabilistic theory of measurement uncertainty | 21 |

Subjective probability and Bayes theorem | 41 |

Copyright | |

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### Common terms and phrases

analysis applications approximation average Bayes Bayesian approach Bayesian inference best estimate binomial calculated calibration constant causes central limit theorem coherence concept of probability conclusions conditional probability confidence interval correlated covariance matrix definition of probability degree of belief depend detector discussed evaluation example expected value experiment experimental fact factor final distribution final probability formula frequentistic Gaussian given hypothesis tests independent initial probability interpretation intuitive ISO Guide knowledge linear logical mass maximum likelihood meaning measurand measurement uncertainty methods Monte Carlo normally distributed number of events obtained P(Hi parameter particle performed physical quantity physicists point of view Poisson distribution probabilistic statement probability density function problem random variable ratio reason result sample scheme Section simple solution standard deviation standard uncertainty subjective probability systematic effects systematic errors theory true value uncertainty due uniform distribution uniform prior unknown upper limit usually variances zero