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18 months agency's agent allocation award baseline hazard behavior bonus-based bonuses coefficient estimate conditional probability Courty and Marschke data source dummies earnings gain earnings impacts Econometric employment enrollee's earnings enrollee's training enrollees whose training evidence of gaming explanatory variables explicit incentives finish training function gaming responses graduation date graduation delay Heckman HIGHi human capital identify incentive shifter indicator variable Jean Tirole JTPA incentive system JTPA Performance JTPA training June 30 JUNEi(t JUNFRAC JUNTRUNC literature maximize month of June National JTPA Study number of days optimal graduation strategy organization oversamples participants percent performance incentives performance measures performance outcome exceeds Performance Standards person who finished person whose training prediction proportional hazards model random assignment responses to incentives rewarded objective Section selection bias stochastically independent substitution effect training ends training in June training spell truncate in June truncate training truncation effect unemployed enrollees welfare loss year-end performance zero otherwise