Federal Reserve's First Monetary Policy Report for 1979: Hearings Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, United States Senate, Ninety-sixth Congress, First Session ... February 20 and 23, 1979 |
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Page 117
... simulate them . And so , you see , for the range of variables listed , the sometimes explicitly stated figures of the administration and the derived num- bers , out of the derived model simulation for 1979 and 1980 , fourth quarter to ...
... simulate them . And so , you see , for the range of variables listed , the sometimes explicitly stated figures of the administration and the derived num- bers , out of the derived model simulation for 1979 and 1980 , fourth quarter to ...
Page 118
... simulation - the M1 growth implied by the administration forecast , it is 4.4 percent . The M , growth that comes out of the current DRI forecast , over the time period , is 2.7 percent . For Ma , it is 72 percent for the administration ...
... simulation - the M1 growth implied by the administration forecast , it is 4.4 percent . The M , growth that comes out of the current DRI forecast , over the time period , is 2.7 percent . For Ma , it is 72 percent for the administration ...
Page 119
... simulations on it to obtain the probabilities that , given the Carter assumptions that monetary growth would be - where monetary growth would lie , relative to the Federal Reserve target ranges - and the results are interesting ...
... simulations on it to obtain the probabilities that , given the Carter assumptions that monetary growth would be - where monetary growth would lie , relative to the Federal Reserve target ranges - and the results are interesting ...
Page 120
... simulations with the model , having to do with what would happen under different interest rate patterns . The CHAIRMAN . Let me just interrupt once more . What you are saying is that if you follow the Fed's approach , that you're going ...
... simulations with the model , having to do with what would happen under different interest rate patterns . The CHAIRMAN . Let me just interrupt once more . What you are saying is that if you follow the Fed's approach , that you're going ...
Page 121
... simulation with monetary growth rates at the lower ends . One produces wide variations in interest rates . Once again , it does not do much to jog the economy . What I conclude from all of this is the following : It isn't going to make ...
... simulation with monetary growth rates at the lower ends . One produces wide variations in interest rates . Once again , it does not do much to jog the economy . What I conclude from all of this is the following : It isn't going to make ...
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Common terms and phrases
acceleration accounts administration Administration's aggregate demand annual rate average billion budget business fixed investment capital Chairman Miller chart Congress cycle decline deficit deposits dollar DRI forecast economic expansion Economic Report effect expected Fed target Federal funds rate Federal Reserve Board Federal Reserve System fiscal policy fixed investment foreign exchange markets fourth quarter funds goals going Government growth rate HEINEMANN higher households housing starts impact income increase indicate inflation rate inflationary KANE labor force loan M₁ ment midpoint moderate monetary aggregates monetary base monetary expansion monetary growth monetary policy monetary restraint money market certificates money stock money supply months mortgage nominal interest rates past percentage point period pressures productivity rate of inflation real GNP real interest rates recent recession reduce Reserve's rise savings sector Senator SINAI slow spending stability target ranges thrift institutions tion trend unemployment rate wage
Popular passages
Page 2 - Nation; (2) the objectives and plans of the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee with respect to the ranges of growth or diminution of the monetary and credit aggregates "for the calendar year during which the report is transmitted, taking account of past and prospective developments in employment, unemployment, production, investment, real income, productivity, international trade and payments, and prices...
Page 100 - M-3 from the fourth quarter of 1978 to the fourth quarter of 1979...
Page 236 - monetarist" view of the reasons for the acceleration of inflation since 1965: that it has been the ultimate consequence of an increase in the rate of world monetary expansion, an increase attributable primarily to the excessively expansionary monetary policy pursued by the United States in recent years, and diffused to the rest of the world through the US payments deficit. The monetarist...
Page 156 - Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.
Page 98 - ... taking account of past and prospective developments in employment, unemployment, production, investment, real income, productivity, international trade and payments, and prices; and (3) the relationship of the aforesaid objectives and plans to the short-term goals set forth in the most recent Economic Report of the President . . . and to any shortterm goals approved by the Congress.
Page 84 - FOMC's deliberations regarding the monetary growth ranges. At this stage it is impossible to tell whether the weakness of Ml relative to what would have been expected on the basis of historical relationships among money, income, and interest rates is a transitory phenomenon or one that is likely to persist for some time.
Page 72 - ... 1977, the level of Ml was well below that predicted by most standard econometric models of the demand for money. This downward shift in money demand abated in early 1977, however, and growth of Ml generally conformed to historical patterns until the final months of 1978. Ml expanded 8 percent during 1977 and at about the same pace over the first three quarters of 1978; rising interest rates and slowing economic expansion worked to moderate Ml growth over this span, but these influences were offset...
Page 84 - ... monetary aggregates that it believes will bring to bear an appropriate degree of restraint in light of current outlook for fiscal policy and the underlying strength of private demand in the economy. Over the year ending with the fourth quarter of 1979, Ml is expected to grow between 1-1/2 and 4-1/2 percent; M-2, 5 to 8 percent; and M-3, 6 to 9 percent. Commercial bank credit has been projected to increase between 7-1/2 and 10-1/2 percent during the year. The growth range for Ml calls for a marked...
Page 49 - ... with price stability may change considerably over time. To enhance the possibility of simultaneously achieving low unemployment and price stability, it may be necessary to augment monetary and fiscal policies with carefully focused programs to facilitate job placement and to provide skill training. Productivity The 3.5 million increase in payroll employment during 1978 was much larger than would have been expected on the basis of the historical relationships between output changes and labor demand....
Page 37 - Business Fixed Investment Real business fixed investment rose 8-1/4 percent over 1978. This was nearly the same pace of advance as in the two previous years and almost twice the rate of expansion in aggregate activity. Recently, nonresidential construction activity has become an important source of business investment growth. In 1978, real spending for such structures increased 12-3/4 percent as outlays for commercial and industrial buildings showed particularly impressive gains. On the other hand,...