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The Federalist papers as a case study
Words and their distributions
The main study
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adjustment analysis assumptions asymptotic average Bayes Bayesian beta beta distribution calibrating set cent choice CM CM computation contextual correction correlation counts discrimination disputed papers evaluation evidence expected log odds Federalist papers final odds function words given Hamilton and Madison Hamilton Madison Hamilton markers Hamilton papers high-frequency words independent initial odds Ivor Francis known authorship likelihood ratio logarithm low-frequency words Madison markers Madison papers main study marker words matrix mean rate method modal approximation mode negative binomial distribution non-Poissonness normally distributed obtained odds factor paper length Paper number paper of length papers of known parameters penalty function Poisson distribution Poisson model posterior density posterior distribution predictions prior density prior distribution probability problem random variable sample score screening set Section sets of underlying shown in Table standard deviations statistical theorem total log odds underlying constants unknown paper variance variation word groups word rates zero