Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the FutureUsing the amazing science of S-Curves, Theodore Modis explores--and explodes--the assumptions we make about everything from car safety to artistic achievement. Pointing out that once a growth process has been established, its future course is predictable, Modis illuminates everything from the automobile death toll to the origins of Christianity. |
Contents
PROLOGUE | 11 |
SCIENCE AND FORETELLING | 19 |
NEEDLES IN A HAYSTACK | 41 |
Copyright | |
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Common terms and phrases
accelerators accidents American APPENDIX FIGURE automobile basic innovations become behavior cars ceiling century Cesare Marchetti chaos Chapter coal competition cumulative number cycle data points decline deviations diphtheria discovery diseases early economic energy consumption evolution example explorations exponential fifty-six-year fitted fluctuations Forecasting and Social future graph growing growth curve growth process historical human increasing industry Infrastructures James Gleick Laxenburg learning logistic logistic function look Lotka mathematical models natural gas natural growth natural-growth curve Nebojsa Nakicenovic niche Nobel prize nuclear energy oscillations overall particle accelerators pattern peak percent percentage period phase physicists population predict primary energy primary energy sources production railway ratio reached recession Red Brigades S-curve S-shaped saturation share Social Change society species Statistics straight line substitution model successful supertankers Technological Forecasting Theodore Modis tion total number tourist trajectory transport trend United Vito Volterra wave World War II