Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U. S. Presidential Elections
Donald Trump's unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election brought sweeping criticism of election polls and poll-based statistical forecasts, which had signaled that Hillary Clinton would win the White House. Surprise ran deep in 2016, but it was not unprecedented. Lost in a Gallup examines in lively and engaging fashion the history of polling flops, epic upsets, unforeseen landslides, and exit poll fiascoes in American presidential elections. Drawing on archival collections and contemporaneous sources, W. Joseph Campbell presents insights on notable pollsters of the past, including George Gallup, Elmo Roper, Archibald Crossley, Warren Mitofsky, and Louis Harris. The story is one of media failure, too, as journalists invariably take their lead from polls in crafting campaign narratives. Lost in a Gallup describes how numerous prominent journalists--including Edward R. Murrow, Jimmy Breslin, Mike Royko, Christopher Hitchens, and Haynes Johnson--were outspoken poll-bashers and critics. In assessing polling's messy, uneven, and controversial past, Campbell emphasizes that although election polls are not always wrong, their inherent drawbacks invite skepticism and wariness. Readers will come away better prepared to weigh the efficacy and value of pre-election polls in presidential races, the most important of all American elections.
What people are saying - Write a review
We haven't found any reviews in the usual places.
accessed accuracy accurate added ahead American analysis asked Association Bush called campaign candidate Chicago claim Clinton close conducted critics Crossley David Democratic Dewey early editor Eisenhower Election Day Election Night election polling electoral votes Elmo error estimated example exit polls failed failure figures final forecast four George Gallup going Harris interview John Journal journalists Kerry Landon late later lead letter Literary Digest magazine March Michigan Mitofsky Nate Silver networks never newspaper noted November October opinion polls organizations outcome percent percentage points political pollsters popular vote pre-election polls prediction President presidential election Press probably projections Public Opinion Quarterly published question Quoted race Reagan Republican Research respondents retrieved Review Roosevelt Roper sampling saying Science seemed September showed Silver suggested survey television tion Tribune Truman Trump turned University victory voters Washington Post weeks wrong wrote York