Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections

W. Joseph Campbell

Univ of California Press, Feb 20, 2024 - History - 368 pages

This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections.

Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. 

As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.

Contents

• Of Pollsters Journalists and Presidential Elections: 1
• Of PollBashing Journalists and the Babe Ruth of Survey Research: 21
• The Literary Digest Debacle of 1936: 40
• The Epic Fail of 1948: 62
• The 1952 Landslide Pollsters: 85
• Miscalling: 108
• Exit Polls Misfire in 2004: 148
• Pointing the Wrong Way in 2012: 165
• The Shock: 183
• Polls of 2020: 205
• Notes: 229
• Select Bibliography: 323
• Index: 331

About the author

W. Joseph Campbell is an American writer, historian, and media critic who is the author of six other books, including the award-winning Getting It Wrong: Debunking the Greatest Myths in American Journalism.

Bibliographic information

• Title: Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections
• Author: W. Joseph Campbell
• Edition: illustrated
• Publisher: Univ of California Press, 2024
• ISBN: 0520397789, 9780520397781
• Length: 368 pages
• Subjects: History / General; History / United States / General; Political Science / American Government / General; Political Science / American Government / National; Political Science / Political Process / Campaigns & Elections; Political Science / Political Process / Media & Internet; Political Science / Public Opinion Polling