Provincial Public Finance in Ontario: An Empirical Analysis of the Last Twenty-five YearsThis detailed and informative study makes a timely contribution to a subject that has been the focus of much public discussion and debate in Ontario and elsewhere, namely the size and growth of the public sector. Working with the Public Accounts and other sources, Professor Foot offers both an historical account of, and an explanation for, the growth of provincial revenues and expenditures since the early 1950s. By concentrating on an analysis of the development of a single government over time, rather than adopting the traditional cross-section approach of analysing a number of junior-level governments. The study's conclusions are both informative and provocative. On the revenue side, a rate-base approach which separates discretionary from automatic changes in revenue determinants is shown to provide sufficient flexibility to accommodate the analysis and explanation of a wide range of specific revenues. On the expenditure side, the provincial government is found to adjust reasonably slowly to new levels of desired expenditures which appear to be determined primarily by demand variables. Of particular interest are findings which suggest that urbanization and elections have had little effect on expenditures and that available federal money has tended to be a substitute for provincial funds. In addition, the author notes that provincial expenditure patterns are consistent with either a revenue-led interpretation, where the recent availability of pension funds has stimulated expenditures, or a leading-sector interpretation, which implies a longer-run coordinated view of provincial public development. This study should stimulate a more informed discussion of the determinants and effects of provincial public finance in Ontario. It will appeal not only to those interested in the behaviour of junior-level governments but also to anyone interested in the size and growth of the public sector, in Ontario or elsewhere. |
Contents
The Ontario economy selected series 194774 | 6 |
The age structure of the population of Ontario 194774 | 7 |
The Ontario economy in relation to the Canadian economy selected series 194774 | 9 |
Copyright | |
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Provincial Public Finance in Ontario: An Empirical Analysis of the Last ... David K. Foot Limited preview - 1977 |
Common terms and phrases
accruals adjustment administration analysis annual growth rates approach approximately Average annual growth budgetary calculation Canada Pension Plan Canadian Tax Foundation cent coefficient complete model deflated dependent variable detailed disaggregated discretionary changes dollars dummy variable econometric Economics expenditure categories expenditure estimates expenditure programs expenditure sub-model explanatory variables federal government fees fiscal funds government expenditures Government of Ontario highway hospital hypothesis important included income tax increase introduced LCBO licences medium-term trends mil DW million ministries model of provincial motive fuel municipalities OHIP OHSC Ontario Provincial Police payments pension personal income population premiums presented in Table provincial economy provincial expenditures provincial government provincial public finances proxy Public Accounts rate-base model reduced form relevant retail sales tax revenue and expenditure revenue categories revenue sources revenue sub-model Statistics Canada structure succession duties T₁ tax base tax rate tax revenues taxation TEIA tion transfer vehicles