Global Dynamics: Approaches from Complexity Science

Front Cover
Alan G. Wilson
John Wiley & Sons, Jul 12, 2016 - Mathematics - 352 pages

A world model: economies, trade, migration, security and development aid.

This bookprovides the analytical capability to understand and explore the dynamics of globalisation. It is anchored in economic input-output models of over 200 countries and their relationships through trade, migration, security and development aid. The tools of complexity science are brought to bear and mathematical and computer models are developed both for the elements and for an integrated whole. Models are developed at a variety of scales ranging from the global and international trade through a European model of inter-sub-regional migration to piracy in the Gulf and the London riots of 2011. The models embrace the changing technology of international shipping, the impacts of migration on economic development along with changing patterns of military expenditure and development aid. A unique contribution is the level of spatial disaggregation which presents each of 200+ countries and their mutual interdependencies – along with some finer scale analyses of cities and regions. This is the first global model which offers this depth of detail with fully work-out models, these provide tools for policy making at national, European and global scales.

Global dynamics:

  • Presents in depth models of global dynamics.
  • Provides a world economic model of 200+ countries and their interactions through trade, migration, security and development aid.
  • Provides pointers to the deployment of analytical capability through modelling in policy development.
  • Features a variety of models that constitute a formidable toolkit for analysis and policy development.
  • Offers a demonstration of the practicalities of complexity science concepts.

This book is for practitioners and policy analysts as well as those interested in mathematical model building and complexity science as well as advanced undergraduate and postgraduate level students.

 

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Contents

GLOBAL DYNAMICS AND THE TOOLS OF COMPLEXITY
3
TRADE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
11
An Interdependent Multilayer Model for Trade
26
A Global Intercountry Economic Model Based on Linked
51
PartIII MIGRATION
75
Rest of Europe
90
Estimating Interregional Migration in Europe
97
Interregional Intercountry Migration Flows in Europe
121
Rebellions
175
Modelling Maritime Piracy
187
Volume Field of Naval Units
193
International Information Flows Government Response and
214
AID AND DEVELOPMENT
233
Model Building for the Complex System of International
257
A Complex Perspective
271
An Integrated Model
293

PartIV SECURITY
145
Riots
159

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About the author (2016)

Alan Wilson, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London, UK. His research interests have been concerned with many aspects of mathematical modelling and the use of models in planning in relation to all aspects of cities and regions - including demography, economic input-output modelling, transport and locational structures. He was responsible for the introduction of a number of model building techniques which are now in common use internationally. These models have been widely used in areas such as transport planning. He made important contributions through the rigorous deployment of accounts' concepts in demography and economic modelling. In recent years he has been particularly concerned with applications of dynamical systems theory in relation to the task of modelling the evolution of urban structure — initially described in Catastrophe theory and bifurcation: applications to urban and regional systems. His current research, supported by ESRC and EPSRC grants of around ?3M, is on the evolution of cities and the dynamics of global trade and migration.

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