Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases

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Gerardo Chowell, James M. Hyman
Springer, Jul 27, 2016 - Mathematics - 356 pages

The contributions by epidemic modeling experts describe how mathematical models and statistical forecasting are created to capture the most important aspects of an emerging epidemic.Readers will discover a broad range of approaches to address questions, such as

  • Can we control Ebola via ring vaccination strategies?
  • How quickly should we detect Ebola cases to ensure epidemic control?
  • What is the likelihood that an Ebola epidemic in West Africa leads to secondary outbreaks in other parts of the world?
  • When does it matter to incorporate the role of disease-induced mortality on epidemic models?
  • What is the role of behavior changes on Ebola dynamics?
  • How can we better understand the control of cholera or Ebola using optimal control theory?
  • How should a population be structured in order to mimic the transmission dynamics of diseases such as chlamydia, Ebola, or cholera?
  • How can we objectively determine the end of an epidemic?
  • How can we use metapopulation models to understand the role of movement restrictions and migration patterns on the spread of infectious diseases?
  • How can we capture the impact of household transmission using compartmental epidemic models?
  • How could behavior-dependent vaccination affect the dynamical outcomes of epidemic models?

The derivation and analysis of the mathematical models addressing these questions provides a wide-ranging overview of the new approaches being created to better forecast and mitigate emerging epidemics.

This book will be of interest to researchers in the field of mathematical epidemiology, as well as public health workers.

 

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Contents

A Reality of Its Own
1
Modeling the Impact of Behavior Change on the Spread of Ebola
5
A Model for Coupled Outbreaks Contained by Behavior Change
25
RealTime Assessment of the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak
38
Modeling the Case of Early Detection of Ebola Virus Disease
57
Modeling RingVaccination Strategies to Control Ebola Virus Disease Epidemics
71
Evaluating the Number of Sickbeds During Ebola Epidemics Using Optimal Control Theory
89
Inverse Problems and Ebola Virus Disease Using an Age of Infection Model
102
Age of Infection Epidemic Models
207
Optimal Control of Vaccination in an AgeStructured Cholera Model
221
A Multirisk Model for Understanding the Spread of Chlamydia
249
Strategic Implications of Increasing Urbanization
269
A Short Review
291
Statistical Considerations in Infectious Disease Randomized Controlled Trials
302
When Does It Matter?
313
Capturing Household Transmission in Compartmental Models of Infectious Disease
329

Assessing the Efficiency of Movement Restriction as a Control Strategy of Ebola
123
Patch Models of EVD Transmission Dynamics
146
The BenHur effect
169
Designing Public Health Policies to Mitigate the Adverse Consequences of RuralUrban Migration via MetaPopulation Modeling
186
Bistable Endemic States in a SusceptibleInfectiousSusceptible Model with BehaviorDependent Vaccination
341
Index
355
Copyright

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About the author (2016)

Gerardo Chowell is an associate professor and a Second Century Initiative Scholar (2CI) in the School of Public Health at Georgia State University in Atlanta. His research program includes the development and application of quantitative approaches for understanding the transmission dynamics and control of infectious diseases including influenza, Ebola, and dengue fever. His work has appeared in high-impact journals including The New England Journal of Medicine, PLOS Medicine, and BMC Medicine, and has been cited by major media outlets including the Washington Post and TIME magazine.

James (Mac) Hyman has developed and analyzed mathematical models for the transmission of HIV/AIDs, influenza, malaria, dengue fever, chikungunya, and infections. His current focus is to identify approaches where these models can help public health workers be more effective in mitigating the impact of emerging diseases. He was a research scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory for over thirty years, is a past president of the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM), and now holds the Phillips Distinguished Chair in Mathematics at Tulane University.

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