## Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious DiseasesThe contributions by epidemic modeling experts describe how mathematical models and statistical forecasting are created to capture the most important aspects of an emerging epidemic.Readers will discover a broad range of approaches to address questions, such as - Can we control Ebola via ring vaccination strategies?
- How quickly should we detect Ebola cases to ensure epidemic control?
- What is the likelihood that an Ebola epidemic in West Africa leads to secondary outbreaks in other parts of the world?
- When does it matter to incorporate the role of disease-induced mortality on epidemic models?
- What is the role of behavior changes on Ebola dynamics?
- How can we better understand the control of cholera or Ebola using optimal control theory?
- How should a population be structured in order to mimic the transmission dynamics of diseases such as chlamydia, Ebola, or cholera?
- How can we objectively determine the end of an epidemic?
- How can we use metapopulation models to understand the role of movement restrictions and migration patterns on the spread of infectious diseases?
- How can we capture the impact of household transmission using compartmental epidemic models?
- How could behavior-dependent vaccination affect the dynamical outcomes of epidemic models?
This book will be of interest to researchers in the field of mathematical epidemiology, as well as public health workers. |

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### Contents

1 | |

5 | |

A Model for Coupled Outbreaks Contained by Behavior Change | 25 |

RealTime Assessment of the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak | 38 |

Modeling the Case of Early Detection of Ebola Virus Disease | 57 |

Modeling RingVaccination Strategies to Control Ebola Virus Disease Epidemics | 71 |

Evaluating the Number of Sickbeds During Ebola Epidemics Using Optimal Control Theory | 89 |

Inverse Problems and Ebola Virus Disease Using an Age of Infection Model | 102 |

Age of Infection Epidemic Models | 207 |

Optimal Control of Vaccination in an AgeStructured Cholera Model | 221 |

A Multirisk Model for Understanding the Spread of Chlamydia | 249 |

Strategic Implications of Increasing Urbanization | 269 |

A Short Review | 291 |

Statistical Considerations in Infectious Disease Randomized Controlled Trials | 302 |

When Does It Matter? | 313 |

Capturing Household Transmission in Compartmental Models of Infectious Disease | 329 |

Assessing the Efficiency of Movement Restriction as a Control Strategy of Ebola | 123 |

Patch Models of EVD Transmission Dynamics | 146 |

The BenHur effect | 169 |

Designing Public Health Policies to Mitigate the Adverse Consequences of RuralUrban Migration via MetaPopulation Modeling | 186 |

### Other editions - View all

Mathematical and Statistical Modeling for Emerging and Re-emerging ... Gerardo Chowell,James M. Hyman No preview available - 2016 |

### Common terms and phrases

1918 influenza pandemic assume assumption average baseline basic reproduction number behavior change Biol Biosci Castillo-Chavez chlamydia trachomatis cholera compartmental model computed contact tracing define density disease transmission distribution Ebola epidemic Ebola outbreak Ebola virus disease effective endemic epidemic model epidemiological equations estimated force of infection forecasting function heterogeneous mixing hloc hmig household transmission human immunity impact increases incubation period infected individuals infectious period influenza initial interventions isolation Liberia logistic Math mathematical model matrix measles migration mortality number of contacts observed optimal control pandemic parameter values patch models Paulo PLoS population probability public health risk São Paulo scenarios screening Sierra Leone simulations spatial spread stochastic strategies susceptible individuals Switzerland 2016 G symptomatic total number transmission dynamics transmission model transmission rate USA e-mail vaccination vaccination program variables West Africa World Health Organization