Stumbling on wins two economists expose the pitfalls on the road to victory in professional sports

Acknowledgments . . . xiAbout the Authors . . . xiiiPreface . . . xvChapter 1: Maybe the Fans Are Right . . . 1Sporting Rationality. . . 3Crunchers, “Experts,” and the Wrath of Randomness . . . 5A Century of Mistakes in Baseball . . . 7Chapter 2: Defending Isiah . . . 13Isiah Thomas Illustrates How Money Can’t Buy You Love . . . 14Getting Paid in the NBA. . . 20Coaching Contradictions. . . 23Isiah’s Defense. . . 28Chapter 3: The Search for Useful Stats . . . 33Identifying the Most “Useful” Numbers . . . 33The Most Important Position in Team Sports? . . . 39Assigning Wins and Losses . . . 47Chapter 4: Football in Black and White . . . 49A Brief History of the Black Quarterback . . . 50Performance in Black and White . . . 55Quarterback Pay in Black and White . . . 63Chapter 5: Finding the Face of the Franchise . . . 67Birth of the Draft . . . 68The Problem with Picking First . . . 69How to Get Picked First? . . . 78Back to Kostka. . . . 80Chapter 6: The Pareto Principle and Drafting Mistakes . . . 83The Pareto Principle and Losing to Win . . . 83The NBA Draft and NBA Performance. . . 93Catching a Baseball Draft . . . 100Chapter 7: Inefficient on the Field . . . 103Just Go For It! . . . 106Evaluating the Little Man in Football . . . 113The Hot Hand and Coaching Contradictions . . . 115Chapter 8: Is It the Teacher or the Students? . . . 119The Wealth of Coaching . . . 120“Take Your’n and Beat His’n” . . . 122Deck Chairs? . . . 125Growing Older and Diminishing Returns . . . 126Putting the Picture Together . . . 132Chapter 9: Painting a Bigger Picture . . . 135Appendix A: Measuring Wins Produced in the NBA . . . 141A Very Brief Introduction to Regression Analysis . . . 141Modeling Wins in the NBA . . . 143Calculating Wins Produced in the NBA. . . 148Win Score and PAWS48 . . . 154A Comment on Alternatives . . . 156Three Objections to Wins Produced for the NBA . . . 158Appendix B: Measuring Wins Produced in the NFL . . . 161Endnotes . . . 173Chapter 1 . . . 173Chapter 2 . . . 176Chapter 3 . . . 181Chapter 4 . . . 186Chapter 5 . . . 189Chapter 6 . . . 194Chapter 7 . . . 198Chapter 8 . . . 202Chapter 9 . . . 207References . . . 209Books and Articles . . . 209Web Sites . . . 222Index . . . 225